Any Given Tuesday

RealClearPolitics

What the Super Bowl Tells Us About 2008

Reed Galen

In February, the New York Football Giants stunned everyone by upsetting the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 42 Their journey to football's highest peak was as improbable as it was surprising and their successful playoff run shows similarities to this year's Presidential race.

The Giants and the McCain campaign share a few similar traits. Both were wild cards in the respective contests. At every turn, both were outspent, outgunned and not expected to win. The Giants went to Dallas and beat the Cowboys. They went to Green Bay and beat a legend on his own field. McCain, left for dead time-and-again, used the springboard of his New Hampshire victory to rack up enough victories to make his nomination a forgone conclusion by the time the polls closed on February 5th.

The similarities between their opponents are illuminating as well. What do the New England Patriots and Barack Obama's campaign have in common? History, for starters. The Pats strove to go 19-0 and finally surpass the Miami Dolphins' record. Obama hopes to become the first African-American president. Media Hype - both suffer from over-exposure and an (somewhat) adoring press corps that desperately wants to write the story. They're well funded, highly disciplined organizations, which make few, if any, unforced errors. Their on-field talent is beyond question. Given a choice, no one would pick Eli Manning over Tom Brady. Ever.

The McCain organization will never be able match Obama in money, organization, oratory skills or raucous crowds in Berlin. But none of that may matter. Whether or not the Obama campaign, or the main-stream-media for that matter, wants to believe it, swing voters in target states have not yet made up their minds about which candidate they'll vote for come November.

So how exactly did the Giants do it and how can the McCain campaign learn from their example? Outclassed at most positions on the field, the Giants game plan was simple. Take advantage of opportunities when they presented themselves, force Tom Brady into situations in which he was uncomfortable and ultimately, perhaps most importantly, a deep-seated belief that they could in fact win the game. This is exactly what they did and it is the strategy we saw the McCain campaign begin employing in the past few weeks.

Starting with the "Celeb" ad, holding up Barack Obama to the likes of Paris and Britney, the McCain campaign clearly surprised its opponents and pushed them into unfamiliar territory. Obama for the first time since he secured the nomination was flushed from the pocket and he didn't like it. McCain clearly found a seam and is exploiting it to its fullest - recent tracking polls show the race has become a statistical tie. The Obama campaign has complained about negative campaigning (ask McCain about South Carolina in 2000) but what they're experiencing is yet another opponent who has the audacity to question Obama's pre-ordained march to the White House.

After Labor Day, once the balloons and confetti from both conventions have been swept into the dustbin of history, most American voters will begin to pay attention in earnest. This is the time when the McCain campaign will - mirroring the Giants - have the opportunity to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves. Starting with the first scheduled debate in late September, Barack Obama will have to stand on a stage before voters and prove to them his vision for the country meshes with theirs. Without benefit of his offensive line, in this case a teleprompter, carefully groomed crowd and the trappings of office to which he's already become accustomed, Obama's task will not be an easy one.

If Obama cannot stand up to the questions of his opponent, undecided swing-voters and a moderator (see Charlie Gibson) who will no doubt recognize the weight of their assignment, he risks negating all of his organizational advantages. If he fails to prove to Americans in Springfield, Missouri that he shares as much in common with them as he does with those in San Francisco, California, Obama could find it a very long fall - chronologically and vertically.

Barack Obama may be one of the best orators of his generation but there's no one who's better at the free-form town hall meeting than John McCain. More than comfortable with those that disagree with him, like a quarterback scanning the defense, he actively welcomes and engages their participation. More intangible, though, McCain relishes not only being the underdog, but also, much like political idol Teddy Roosevelt, being the man in the arena. He's seen the best and worst of what humanity has to offer - to think that standing on a stage with Barack Obama will induce nerves is unlikely.

These one-on-one match-ups, of which McCain wanted many more, represent a huge opportunity for McCain and potential disaster for Obama. Obama's task is made that much more difficult in that he'll have to thread the needle. Come off as too aggressive and risk alienating the viewers. Play it safe and Obama is likely to remind voters of Michael Dukakis or John Kerry; yet another in a long line of Democrats who say what they think people want to hear and come off looking disingenuous, and subsequently unelectable in the process. When the clock reads zeroes across on Election Day, Obama very well may find himself 18-1.